The number of Indian students arriving in the US on student visas dropped 39% in August compared with the same month last year. It is the third year in a row that August, normally the busiest month for new international students heading into the fall term, has come in lower.

Figures from the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration show 25,321 arrivals on F and M visas in August, against 41,540 a year earlier. That is the weakest August since 2020, when pandemic restrictions kept the count at just 2,908. It also sits 73% below the 2023 high of 93,833.

The decline started under Joe Biden, when August 2024 arrivals slipped 20.3% to 74,825. It has sped up since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. August arrivals fell 44.5% in 2025 and another 39% this year, which puts them 66.2% under the 2024 level. Over the same stretch, the administration has widened social media checks for student visa applicants, finalised a rule to end open-ended stays for foreign students (a court has since blocked it), and floated heavy fees tied to post-study work.

Delays, Screening and Gaps in the Data

Visa processing for F-1 applicants slowed sharply in 2025. In a Rajya Sabha reply on April 2, the Ministry of External Affairs said 12,776 F-1 visas went to Indian nationals in June and July 2025, a fall of 69.1% from 41,336 the year before. It said stricter US screening and compliance steps had affected issuance. The State Department has only released monthly issuance numbers through February 2026, so there is nothing comparable for this summer.

Since State Department guidance on June 18, 2025, student and exchange visitor applicants have had to make their social media profiles public for review.

The ITA figures have limits. They count entries rather than people, include dependents on F-2 and M-2 visas, and sort arrivals by country of residence. August and September numbers are preliminary. The data does not reveal how many visas were granted, how many students enrolled, or why arrivals dropped. The US Embassy in New Delhi and the ITA had not replied to HT’s questions at the time of writing.

The Wider Picture

Arrivals were also down 17.3% in June and 30.6% in July. September edged up 5% to 12,285 from 11,700, but that gain of 585 barely dents August’s shortfall of 16,219, and the month is still 37.5% below September 2024’s 19,641. Across June to September, arrivals totalled 53,714, which is 28.2% lower than 2025 and 59.7% lower than 2024.

An April paper from the US education firm Shorelight, based on government data it obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, found that the F-1 refusal rate for Indian applicants climbed from 36% in fiscal 2023 to 53% in 2024 and 61% in 2025.

What Consultants Are Seeing

Education consultants point to higher rejection rates, uncertain job prospects and the rising cost of study as reasons families are rethinking their plans. Vinu Warrier, founder and managing partner of eduVelocity Global, said US universities have kept to their usual admission timelines. “US institutions continue to follow their typical admission timelines, with no notable delays recorded,” he stated.

Anil Wagde of Global Empower Network said students have struggled to get visa-stamping appointments. Some students have begun pushing their travel to a later semester because their visas are taking too long,” he said.

A spokesperson for IDP Education said appointment shortages and higher refusals are disrupting travel plans, while proposed changes to Optional Practical Training (OPT) and the new Duration of Status rule are leading families to weigh costs against future earnings. Exchange rate swings are also hurting affordability, the spokesperson said, so families are paying closer attention to return on investment.

OPT Fee Proposal and the Duration of Status Rule

OPT allows F-1 students to work in their field during or after their degree. On October 8, the Department of Homeland Security proposed that institutions pay $70,000 per student for a first OPT period and $30,000 for each one after that.

Separately, DHS finalized a rule on July 17 that would swap the current system, where students are admitted with no fixed end date, for fixed stays of up to four years. A federal court in Massachusetts blocked it on September 14, a day before it was due to take effect. The government has appealed.

Warrier said inconsistent policy on student visas, temporary work visas and green cards is wearing down trust in the US as a place to study. “The primary assurance you would require is stability and certainty,” he said.

Consultants say some students are now looking at Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. Others are considering private universities in India or simply waiting for clearer visa and job rules.

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